Noah-MP模型中积雪模拟对参数化方案的敏感性评估     

尤元红  黄春林  张莹  侯金亮 《地球科学进展》2019,(4):356-365

针对Noah-MP模型多参数化方案、模拟结果不确定性范围难以确定的特点,选取北疆地区具有代表性的阿勒泰站气象资料作为模型驱动数据,探讨了积雪对多参数化方案的敏感性。在不考虑模型参数和驱动数据不确定性的条件下,设计了集合数为13824的多参数化方案集合模拟试验。选用Natural selection方法对物理过程的敏感性进行分析,并在敏感性分析结果的基础上进一步讨论了模拟结果的不确定性。结果表明:积雪对地表热交换、雨雪分离、土壤温度底层边界条件和第一层积雪或土壤时间方案4个物理过程敏感;在不考虑驱动数据和模型参数不确定性的条件下,多参数化方案集合模拟试验中的不确定性主要来源于敏感物理过程。去除敏感物理过程中能够明显降低模拟性能的参数化方案后,集合模拟结果的不确定性大幅减小。最后,根据分析结果构建了该站雪深和雪水当量模拟的最优参数化方案组合。  相似文献   

场地划分标准对基岩地震动参数衰减关系的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王珊  张郁山  尤贺 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(4):759-769

基于美国NGA强震观测数据库中描述场地的不同指标,定义了五种不同的"基岩"场地类型,得到了相应的数据集;同时采用最小二乘法回归得到了世界范围内对应不同"基岩"定义的地震动参数衰减关系,并研究了不同场地划分标准造成的基岩地震动参数衰减关系的差异。  相似文献   

陆态网络GNSS基准站阶跃偏移量的精确估计     

梁洪宝  朱爽  王友  顾焕杰 《震灾防御技术》2014,9(S1):622-631

通过对发生阶跃的GNSS基准站坐标序列谱指数的求解,表明了其具有有色噪声的特性,并对三分量分别建立了最优噪声模型,以此对GNSS基准站坐标的阶跃偏移量进行了精确估计,探明了地震和仪器更换对测站产生的精细影响。同时利用求解的阶跃偏移量对坐标序列进行修正,对获取连续性变化的测站坐标序列和获取精确的测站三维运动参数具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Impact factors on distribution and characteristics of natural plant community in reclamation zones of Changjiang River estuary     

Yongguang Sun  Xiuzhen Li  Yanlong He  Yue Jia  Zhigang Ma  Wenyong Guo  Zaijun Xin 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2012,22(2):154-166

To identify impact factors on the distribution and characters of natural plants community in reclamation area, with survey data from 67 plant quadrats in July 2009, soil properties data from 216 sampling points in April 2009, and TM (30 m) data in 2006, the composition and characteristics of natural plants community in different time of the Fengxian area in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary were analyzed with two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), detrended canonical correspondence analysis (DCCA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The results show that: 1) The plant communities in the reclaimed area are mainly mesophytes and helophytic-mesophytic transitional communities, showing a gradient distribution trend with the change in reclamation years. Species richness (MA), species diversity (H) and above-ground biomass also increase with the increase of reclamation years. Nevertheless, they appear to decline slightly in the middle and late reclamation period (> 30 years). 2) With the rise in land use levels, the changes in species richness and species diversity tend to increase at first and then decrease; species dominance (D), however, tends to decline; and above-ground biomass increases slightly. 3) The distribution of the plant community is mainly influenced by the following factors: land use levels (R = 0.55, p < 0.05), soil moisture (R = 0.53, p < 0.05), soil salinity (R = 0.43, p < 0.05) and reclamation time (R = 0.40, p < 0.05).  相似文献   

Detection of lymphocystis disease virus in Japanese flounder Paralichthys olivaceus and other marine teleosts from northern China     

战文斌  李永芹  绳秀珍  邢婧  唐小千 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2010,28(6):1213-1220

We isolated a strain of lymphocystis disease virus (LCDV) from Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) cultured in northern China. Based on published sequences of major capsid protein (MCP) gene of LCDV-cn (GenBank: AF126405), we designed two primer sets P1/P2 and P3/P4. We then used one-step or nested PCR and in-situ hybridization (ISH) to detect LCDV and identify the target tissues or cells in infected Japanese flounder. The PCR products were positive in purified viral supernatant, skin nodules, gut, gill, kidney, spleen, stomach, heart, and liver of Japanese flounder. We compared the DNA sequence with 14 MCP nucleotide sequences from GenBank, including Megalocytivirus (OFIV and RSIV), Iridovirus (CzIV and WIV), Ranavirus (TFV and FV3), and Lymphocystivirus (8 LCDV). Based on the alignment, we confirmed the PCR product was from Lymphocystivirus (GenBank accession number DQ279090 (LCDV-HD)). Using ISH, we noted the presence of LCDV in the skin nodules, gut, gill, spleen, stomach, and heart of spontaneously infected Japanese flounders. We successfully amplified LCDV fragments from Schlegel’s black rockfish (Sebastes schlegeli Higendorf), redwing sea robin (Lepidotrigla microptera Günther) and turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) using the one-step and nested PCR, suggesting the target genes can be widely detected in fish using this method.  相似文献   

Application of support vector machine to synthetic earthquake prediction     

Chun Jiang  Xueli Wei Xiaofeng Cui  Dexiang You Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality  Tianjin  China Tianjin University of Technology  Tianjin  China 《地震学报(英文版)》2009,(3):315-320

This paper introduces the method of support vector machine (SVM) into the field of synthetic earthquake pre-diction, which is a non-linear and complex seismogenic system. As an example, we apply this method to predict the largest annual magnitude for the North China area (30°E-42°E, 108°N-125°N) and the capital region (38°E-41.5°E, 114°N-120°N) on the basis of seismicity parameters and observed precursory data. The corresponding prediction rates for the North China area and the capital region are 64.1% and ...  相似文献   

丹东形变观测洞室改造     

尤权民  姚圣安  迮安民  姚菲菲  陈尚尉  梁永信  隋玉鹏  邓志岩  刘芳彤 《地震地磁观测与研究》2009,30(3):74-79

“十五”期间,为了新增水管仪、伸缩仪,丹东地震台对形变观测洞室进行了环境改造,新建了仪器基墩,解决了建造仪器基墩过程中遇到的施工难题,为水管仪和伸缩仪运行提供了良好的观测条件。文中介绍的方法对其他台站建造仪器基墩有一定借鉴意义。  相似文献   

The mechanism for the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly on the ridgeline surface of Western Pacific     

Jie Cao  RuoWen Yang  YaLei You  Wei Huang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,52(11):1864-1870

Based on the atmospheric circulation data provided by ECMWF and the sea surface temperature data by NOAA, we studied the mechanism for the impact of sea surface temperature anomaly on the ridgeline surface of western Pacific using an improved high truncated spectral model. Our results show that the wave-wave interaction and the wave-mean flow interactions are weaker in the inner dynamic process of atmospheric circulation, when atmospheric circulation is forced by the sea surface temperature of El Niño pattern. With the external thermal forcing changed from winter to summer pattern, the range of ridgeline surface of western Pacific moving northward is smaller, which causes the ridgeline surface of western Pacific on south of normal. On the contrary, the wave-wave interaction and the wave-mean flow interaction are stronger, when atmospheric circulation is forced by the sea surface temperature of La Niña pattern. With the external thermal forcing turning from winter to summer pattern, the ridgeline surface of western Pacific shifts northward about 19 latitude degrees, which conduces the ridgeline surface of western Pacific on north of normal. After moving to certain latitude, the ridgeline surface of western Pacific oscillates with the most obvious 30–60 d period and the 4°–7° amplitude. It is one of the important reasons for the interannual variation of ridgeline surface of Western Pacific that the atmospheric inner dynamical process forced out by different sea surface temperature anomaly pattern is different.  相似文献   

岩石圈内部第二深度空间金属矿产资源形成与集聚的深层动力学响应   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

滕吉文  杨立强  刘宏臣  闫雅芬  杨辉  张洪双  张永谦  田有 《地球物理学报》2009,52(7):1734-1756

中国的快速工业化发展和经济腾飞必须有大量金属矿产资源的支撑,在共享世界资源的同时,其根本出路在于立足本土．因此提出第二深度空间（500～2000 m）金属矿产资源的找矿勘探新理念．通过对国内外金属矿产资源地球物理勘探发展的概况分析和研究提出：①金属矿产资源的集聚和分布受控于地壳内部物质与能量的交换和其深层动力过程;②在地壳内部第二深度空间存在着丰富的矿产资源,包括大型和超大型矿床;③必须充分发挥高精度地球物理探测方法的效能,并进行综合技术集成．  相似文献   

气象卫星遥感地表温度推算近地表气温方法研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

韩秀珍  李三妹  窦芳丽 《气象学报》2012,70(5):1107-1118

气温是各种植物生理、水文、气象、环境等模式或模型中的一个非常重要的近地表气象参数.多年来气温数据以离散的常规气象站点观测为主,连续分布的格点气温数据则以站点资料插值而得到,分辨率低,无法反映地形等下垫面因素对局地气温的影响,在农业气候区划等研究中具有一定的局限性.随着卫星遥感地表温度算法的日趋成熟,为探讨卫星遥感地表温度数据在气温观测中的可能性和可行性,利用全中国2340个站点1998 2007年的逐旬平均最高气温数据,以及相应时段的NOAA/AVHRR旬最高地表温度数据,以线性回归及拟合模型为主,通过考虑植被指数、土地覆盖类型、季节、风速、气压、降水等各类影响因子,建立了旬最高地表温度与旬平均最高气温间的推算模型,并利用未参与建模的2002-2003年的常规气象站点气温数据,同时与推算气温和插值气温结果进行对比分析.结果表明,利用卫星遥感地表温度数据推算的旬值气温数据可取得较高的精度,尤其在地形复杂地区以及站点稀疏地区精度明显高于插值气温结果.  相似文献